xG/xA Over & Underperformers
Goals and assists compared against each player's season-long expected goals (xG) and expected assists (xA) — a big positive gap means their finishing has been running hot relative to their chance quality (regression risk); a big negative gap means the underlying chances are there but the output hasn't caught up yet (potential buy-low). Limited to players with at least 450 minutes, to keep small samples from skewing the list.
Overperforming xG/xA (running hot)
| Player | Team | Pos | Goals / xG | Assists / xA | Total diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Fernandes | MUN | MID | 9 / 10.8 (-1.8) | 24 / 12.3 (+11.7) | +9.9 |
| Semenyo | MCI | MID | 17 / 11.1 (+5.9) | 6 / 3.1 (+2.9) | +8.8 |
| Wilson | LEE | MID | 10 / 5.9 (+4.1) | 9 / 4.8 (+4.2) | +8.4 |
| João Pedro | CHE | FWD | 15 / 14.9 (+0.1) | 9 / 2.0 (+7.0) | +7.1 |
| Rogers | CHE | MID | 10 / 6.8 (+3.2) | 8 / 4.3 (+3.7) | +6.8 |
| Haaland | MCI | FWD | 27 / 25.5 (+1.5) | 8 / 2.7 (+5.3) | +6.8 |
| Matheus N. | MCI | DEF | 1 / 0.3 (+0.7) | 8 / 2.2 (+5.8) | +6.4 |
| Gravenberch | LIV | MID | 5 / 1.9 (+3.1) | 5 / 2.3 (+2.7) | +5.9 |
| Bruno G. | NEW | MID | 9 / 5.6 (+3.4) | 7 / 5.0 (+2.0) | +5.5 |
| Dewsbury-Hall | EVE | MID | 8 / 4.3 (+3.7) | 7 / 5.3 (+1.7) | +5.3 |
| Gibbs-White | NFO | MID | 15 / 10.8 (+4.2) | 4 / 2.9 (+1.1) | +5.3 |
| Richarlison | TOT | FWD | 11 / 8.6 (+2.4) | 4 / 1.5 (+2.5) | +4.9 |
| Okafor | LEE | MID | 8 / 5.3 (+2.8) | 3 / 1.3 (+1.7) | +4.4 |
| Doku | MCI | MID | 5 / 2.9 (+2.1) | 8 / 5.9 (+2.1) | +4.3 |
| Igor Jesus | NFO | FWD | 6 / 6.5 (-0.5) | 6 / 1.3 (+4.7) | +4.3 |
Underperforming xG/xA (running cold)
| Player | Team | Pos | Goals / xG | Assists / xA | Total diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yeremy | CRY | MID | 2 / 4.5 (-2.5) | 2 / 6.1 (-4.1) | -6.7 |
| Brooks | BOU | MID | 1 / 5.8 (-4.8) | 3 / 3.4 (-0.4) | -5.2 |
| Gudmundsson | LEE | DEF | 0 / 1.1 (-1.1) | 0 / 2.9 (-2.9) | -4.0 |
| Mateta | CRY | FWD | 12 / 14.4 (-2.4) | 0 / 1.3 (-1.3) | -3.7 |
| Enzo | CHE | MID | 10 / 11.3 (-1.3) | 5 / 7.3 (-2.3) | -3.5 |
| Jensen | BRE | MID | 3 / 2.2 (+0.8) | 2 / 6.1 (-4.1) | -3.3 |
| Amad | MUN | MID | 2 / 5.5 (-3.5) | 5 / 4.7 (+0.3) | -3.2 |
| Richards | CRY | DEF | 1 / 2.4 (-1.4) | 0 / 1.6 (-1.6) | -3.0 |
| Mbeumo | MUN | MID | 11 / 12.0 (-1.0) | 3 / 5.0 (-2.0) | -3.0 |
| Wirtz | LIV | MID | 5 / 6.8 (-1.8) | 4 / 5.1 (-1.1) | -3.0 |
| Kamada | CRY | MID | 0 / 1.6 (-1.6) | 2 / 3.2 (-1.2) | -2.9 |
| Struijk | BHA | DEF | 0 / 3.1 (-3.1) | 1 / 0.8 (+0.2) | -2.8 |
| Mitoma | BHA | MID | 3 / 4.0 (-1.0) | 1 / 2.7 (-1.7) | -2.8 |
| Spence | TOT | DEF | 0 / 0.9 (-0.9) | 0 / 1.8 (-1.8) | -2.7 |
| Tavernier | BOU | MID | 7 / 9.1 (-2.1) | 4 / 4.6 (-0.6) | -2.7 |